Elon Musk, self-appointed oracle of geopolitics, has once again weighed in where he has no business weighing in. This time, he’s calling for the United States to exit NATO, arguing that it “doesn’t make sense” for America to foot the bill for Europe’s defense. It’s an argument that’s as shortsighted as it is dangerous. It’s an argument in today’s political climate that feels chillingly plausible.
Because, if Elon Musk wills it, Trump will do it.
The fundamental flaw in Musk’s thinking is the idea that NATO is some kind of charity operation. A charity operation where the United States is footing the bill for the defense of ungrateful European nations. That is not how NATO works. It has never been how NATO has worked.
NATO is an alliance built on the principle of collective defense—an attack on one is an attack on all. The US isn’t paying for Europe’s defense out of some misguided act of goodwill. The US is paying for Europe’s defense because European security is American security. A strong, stable Europe, a Europe protected from tyrants like Putin, prevents conflicts that have the potential to escalate into global wars. It keeps Russia from expanding its authoritarian influence beyond its borders. It ensures that America has allies when crises arrive on our own shores.
Musk, like Trump, fails to understand—or deliberately ignores at the behest of Putin—that NATO is not just about protecting Europe; it’s about protecting the entire Western world, including but not limited to the United States of America.
When terrorists carried out the largest attacks ever on American soil on 9/11, NATO invoked Article 5 for the first and only time ever in history. Article 5 simply says that an attack on one ally is considered an attack on all allies. European allies fought and died alongside American troops in Afghanistan. The idea that NATO is a one-sided burden is not just false, it’s an insult to the sacrifices made by so many of our allies.
Withdrawing from NATO wouldn’t just be a betrayal of our closest allies; it would be a gift to our adversaries. Putin has spent decades trying to weaken NATO because he knows that a divided West makes it easier for Russia to expand its influence. If America were to withdraw from NATO, it would leave Europe vulnerable and send a signal to every authoritarian regime on the planet that the US no longer stands with its allies.
It would also shatter America’s credibility on the world stage. If we abandon NATO, why would or should any country trust American commitments ever again? How could we expect our allies in the Pacific to believe that we would defend them against China’s aggression when we just walked away from the most successful military alliance in history?
And the fear is real. My friends from Germany are terrified at the prospect of the United States leaving NATO. They understand what’s at stake in a way that so many Americans, protected by oceans, do not. For them, Russia isn’t some distant concern, it’s a clear and immediate threat. The Germans remember their history. They know that a weak or fractured NATO emboldens Putin and leaves Europe exposed. And they know that if America steps away from this alliance, they are left to face that threat alone.
Trump, of course, has been itching to pull the plug on NATO for years. John Bolton has warned us over and over again. His disdain for the alliance is well-documented. But now, with Musk bankrolling Trump’s return to power, to the tune of almost $300M and effectively buying influence over the White House, the risk of America actually withdrawing from NATO feels more real than ever before. It’s a completely possible outcome, and unfortunately a likely one at that.\
The terrifying reality is that Musk’s reckless words are likely not going to turn out to be empty tweets. Trump, fueled by Musk’s billions and unburdened by any sense of responsibility, will likely be the president who dismantles NATO. And once the US withdraws, NATO as we know it collapses.
What happens next? The world becomes more unstable. Dictators and tyrants grow bolder. America, once the leader of the free world, becomes isolated.
That’s what’s at stake. Musk’s NATO take isn’t just foolish, it’s extremely dangerous. And if his whims dictate US foreign policy, we have an unrecognizable future ahead of us.